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Maximum likelihood estimation for social network dynamics

机译:社交网络动态的最大似然估计

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摘要

A model for network panel data is discussed, based on the assumption that theobserved data are discrete observations of a continuous-time Markov process onthe space of all directed graphs on a given node set, in which changes in tievariables are independent conditional on the current graph. The model for tiechanges is parametric and designed for applications to social network analysis,where the network dynamics can be interpreted as being generated by choicesmade by the social actors represented by the nodes of the graph. An algorithmfor calculating the Maximum Likelihood estimator is presented, based on dataaugmentation and stochastic approximation. An application to an evolvingfriendship network is given and a small simulation study is presented whichsuggests that for small data sets the Maximum Likelihood estimator is moreefficient than the earlier proposed Method of Moments estimator.
机译:基于观察到的数据是给定节点集上所有有向图的空间上连续时间马尔可夫过程的离散观测的假设,讨论了网络面板数据的模型,其中联系变量的变化是独立于当前图的条件。领带变化模型是参数化的,设计用于社交网络分析,其中网络动态可以解释为由图的节点所代表的社交参与者做出的选择所产生。提出了一种基于数据增强和随机逼近的最大似然估计器计算算法。给出了在不断发展的友谊网络中的应用,并进行了一次小型仿真研究,结果表明,对于较小的数据集,最大似然估计器的效率要高于早期提出的矩量估计器。

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